Another reason ERA sucks
by NoMaas' Marty McFly
June 16, 2008

Was there a better example of why ERA is useless than Mike Mussina’s May 20th start against the Orioles? Just take a look at this play-by-play courtesy of baseball-reference.com:

Brian Roberts Walk
Melvin Mora Groundout: 5-3; Roberts to 2B
Nick Markakis Strikeout Swinging
Aubrey Huff Single to RF (Line Drive); Roberts Scores
Kevin Millar Single to CF (Line Drive); Huff to 2B
Luke Scott Reached on E6 (throw, groundball); Huff to 3B; Millar to 2B
Ramon Hernandez Walk; Huff Scores; Millar to 3B; Scott to 2B
Adam Jones Double to RF (Fly Ball); Millar Scores; Scott Scores; Hernandez Scores
Freddie Bynum Single to RF (Line Drive); Jones Scores; Bynum to 2B on throw
Brian Roberts Wild Pitch; Bynum to 3B; Triple to LF (Line Drive); Bynum Scores
Ohlendorf replaces Mike Mussina pitching
Melvin Mora Groundout: 5-3

Let’s see, 2 walks, 3 singles, a double, a triple, and a WP and Moose is charged with exactly one run. If you don’t want to blame a pitcher for his defense, then shouldn’t you also consider the range of his fielders? A routine play up the middle that becomes a hit (just passed a diving…) is just as much the pitcher’s fault as an infielder’s bad throw.

If you don’t want to include team defense when judging a pitcher, use FIP. Taking away un-earned runs is just half-assing it and overrates groundball pitchers and gives official scorers far more respect than they deserve considering their favorable rulings to home town fielders.

If you believe pitchers have some effect on BIP, maybe not rate of hits but perhaps extra base hits, use OPS against or even better yet expected runs against using linear weights values.

To be fair, Moose has pitched very well recently and by the time the season is over I hope his RA is lower than the 4.87 it currently sits at. His FIP certainly suggests so, but that doesn't account for the astronomical LD% which may be here to stay with an 85 MPH fastball. I'm as big of a Moose fan as you'll find, but lets hold off on talk of re-signing him until we see how he finishes this season. Nobody would be talking about it now if they paid attention to unearned runs, and I think that's a big mistake.