With word that the Nationals are pursuing Nady and/or Swisher, I began to look at what kind of package could possibly be assembled as a return. Considering the reports that the Yankees are much more likely to trade Nady than Swisher, and Jim Bowden allegedly has coveted Nady since last year, I’m going to focus exclusively on him (Nady) for the purposes of this analysis. As always, you can e-mail me with feedback at lanemeyer.nomaas@gmail.com.

A few things we need to consider in order to remain objective:

1. A main goal, regardless of how badly we as fans may want it to be irrelevant, is to cut payroll. Nady is likely to make between $5 and $6 million, and the Yankees would be looking to reduce that amount by as much as possible while still netting a solid return. Yes, it would be nice to keep Nady as a 4th OF, but for this write-up I’m acting on the premise that the major signings this winter necessitate moving Nady’s money.

2. Nady is in the last of his arbitration years making him a FA in 2010, so he is only under control for one year.

3. Nady’s agent is Scott Boras. He’s not signing an extension with whatever club it is that trades for him.

4. Pat Burrell just got an AAV of $8 million. In this market, Nady’s cheapness isn’t what it used to be.

Now, given the fact that this is very clearly a one year rental, what could the Yankees reasonably expect in return for Xavier Nady? The Washington farm system has made great strides over the last few years, but it’s very top heavy, and the guys at the top (Zimmermann, Burgess, Detwiler, and Marrero) aren’t rational returns for a year of Nady. A deal of Austin Kearns and a solid prospect would be an excellent return, as Kearns is an ideal 4th outfielder (league average bat and exceptional defense in the corners), but he has one year at $9 million left on his deal.

So it seems probable that the Yankees are going to make this move for young players that are under salary control, but can’t be too good due to the marks against Nady. Keeping in mind that the Yankees have a gaping hole in CF, there is a prospect in the Washington system that is quite intriguing: Justin Maxwell.

Maxwell is a physical specimen at 6’5” and about 225 lbs, and Baseball America has rated him the best athlete in the National’s system for several years now. He was drafted out of the University of Maryland in 2005 (he will be 25 years old for the 2009 season), and was projected as a 1st round pick before injuries derailed him (he broke several bones in his hand/arm on different occasions before even being drafted). Having already traded for Josh Willingham to play LF, if the Nats traded for Nady to play RF, the CF situation would be completely blocked to Maxwell (Milledge and Dukes ahead of him). Maxwell is extremely toolsy, however he has put together some very nice production in his minor league time, sporting a career OPS of .816. Contextually, while he is older, a CF posting an OPS over .800 in the minor leagues is very impressive.

The concerns with Maxwell are his injury history and his contact skills. He’s broken his arm, pinky, hamate, and last year his right wrist. Defensively he covers a ton of ground, but his arm is below-average. He does strike out a lot, but has shown impressive OBP skills (career minor league IsoD of .091) that have improved every year he has played professional baseball (IsoD of .134 before the wrist injury ended his 2008, and a .180(!) in 41 games in the Peurto Rican Winter League). While those are the negatives, the positives far outweigh them. On a very basic level, Maxwell has great power and exceptional speed. His lofty ceiling is driven by production best measured in OBP and SLG: playing a full season in 2007, he hit .281 / .363 / .533 with 27 HR and 35 SB. Maxwell has never played above AA in the minors, but got a cup of coffee with the Nationals in 2007, hitting two HR in 26 ABs including a pinch-hit grand slam in the 3rd plate appearance of his career.

If the Yankees are going to go into spring training with Melky and Gardner battling it out, Maxwell would likely curbstomp both of them if acquired. At the very least, he is a really nice position prospect that is at the advanced levels, and the Yankees are going to need outfielders after Matsui and Damon are gone in 2010. Considering his power potential, Maxwell’s bat should play in the corners in the Majors.

As for the trade itself, Maxwell alone likely isn’t enough for Nady, so we’d be looking at a deal of something like Nady for Maxwell, one or two other solid prospects or young major leaguers (Collin Balester, Colton Willems, Cole Kimball), and/or a bullpen piece from their ML roster. Considering all of the factors involved in this situation, Maxwell is a solid centerpiece to a deal for Nady.

According to reports Maxwell is completely healthy now and is ready to go for 2009. He’s the kind of high-ceiling young player that would be a nice return for Nady, especially seeing as he has a solid chance to fill the CF void for the Yankees at the Major League level this year.