The Division. Winning the division. As Yankee fans, all we’ve heard over the past two to three weeks is how they are closing the gap in the race for the AL East. The Red Sox are faltering, the Yankees are firing on all cylinders, and the lead that was once 14.5 games has all but evaporated. Strictly from a baseball standpoint, watching the Yankees go on this roll, sew up the wildcard and threaten the division has been amazing. Add to it the fact that the surge has brought with it a new level of excuses and panic from the geniuses in Boston, and you can see why the whole experience made the dog days of summer thoroughly enjoyable. But amidst all the excitement over the potential of actually winning the division after being so far back, I took a step back recently and asked myself “do I really want this?”
Thinking about it, finishing first in the AL East would be beneficial for a couple of reasons. First, it could guarantee home field advantage in the playoffs. However, upon closer inspection, the Yankees would have to finish with a better record than either Cleveland or Anaheim for them to actually get home field for the ALDS. If the Yanks win the division, but remain behind the Angels and Indians in the race for best record in the AL (which is entirely possible, and quite likely actually), they would open up on the road in the playoffs. So, winning the division does not by any means ensure a significant home field advantage this year for the Yankees. In fact, they could win the division and not have home field advantage until the World Series.
Second, it would give the Yankees a nice mental boost going into the postseason. They are “champions,” they fought and clawed all year, and came back when everyone left them for dead. The flipside here though is that the Yankees don’t need the division to prove anything – they already stormed back and made everyone scared, and it’s not like they’re not winning the division because they’re losing their grip; they simply are running out of time. They’re playing at a very high level and have been the best team in baseball since the All-Star Break, whereas Boston has seen its club slowly degrade, falling apart piece by piece, loss by loss, and whine by whine. The fact that the Yankees were almost completely buried by mediots everywhere, and now stand in position to make the playoffs as a team that no one wants to face, is a decent mental boost in itself. Sure, the division would be better, but if they don’t win it it’s not the same let-down it would have been if they held first place and then had it taken from them. Basically, the Yankee are at their high-water mark right now, and being at that level when entering the period of the season that counts most is a great place for any team to be.
Third, and the most satisfying of all, winning the division would allow Yankee fans to avoid having to listen to the self-satisfied bleating of the most smug and delusional fanbase in all of sports. Oddly, this is the biggest reason I want the Yankees to win the division. There's a significant portion of Red Sox Nation that is completely unbearable when it comes to trying to discuss baseball rationally. Shoving a division title in their faces, while might not meaning home field advantage in either of the first two postseason series, would help curtail the inevitable Beantown bluster.
So why wouldn’t a Yankee fan be rooting like hell for their team to complete one of the greatest comebacks in pennant (division) race history? Well, it’s quite simple: the 2008 Rule IV Draft.
If you’re reading this and thinking “he doesn’t want the division because he’s worried about the amateur draft next year? Is he a moron?” the answer to both questions is yes. The problem I have with the Yankees overtaking the Sox for the AL East is that it then puts them behind the Sox when it comes time to make a selection in next year’s draft. This may seem inconsequential now when emotions are running high, trash is being talked by both fanbases, and a division title feels like a mortal wound to the opposition. However, next June when a guy with talent and pedigree starts falling because of signability concerns, the team that picks first out of the two AL East rivals will likely walk away with him.
Being one spot higher or lower in the draft isn’t the be-all, end-all: the Yankees will pick in the narrow range of 27th to 30th. However, what does matter is being one spot higher or lower than Boston. The Yankees and the Red Sox have similar draft philosophies, both seeking high-priced, high-ceiling talent that other teams cannot afford to take the chance on. There should be at least one highly talented player who falls to the back of the first round for signability concerns, and when he does whoever is there to grab him first will have an elite, blue-chip talent while the other team is likely left selecting a player from a different talent pool. For a team like the Yankees, positioning in the first round is important only relative to the few other teams that are willing to go way over slot to procure talent. Winning the division takes an elite talent out of the Yankees farm system and likely places him with the Red Sox – it’s that simple, really.
All of this may change with the movement of free agents in the offseason, but winning the division puts the triumphant organization at a distinct disadvantage for next year’s draft. It may not seem like a big deal now, but next June when a guy like Rick Porcello starts dropping, it’s the difference between knowing you have a good chance of picking him, and knowing you have no chance at all.
So
root for the Yankees to win, but don’t root too hard – if the Yankees do
win the division it will be bittersweet. Draft positioning and a willingness
to go over slot are the reasons that guys like Joba Chamberlain and Ian
Kennedy are even Yankees in the first place. After falling way behind and
subsequently chasing them for most of the season, finishing second to the
Red Sox (yet still making the playoffs) this year would go a long way towards
the acquisition of another major talent. Losing the division would suck
in the short term with all of the Pedroiaing spewing from up north, but
in the end it could mean an All-Star for a decade or more. Stay hot, play
well, and rest up, Yanks, but leave the division for Boston, will ya?