by Conan the Barbarian
As we near the home stretch in this electrifying season, speculation regarding the individual season awards is running rampant. The most prestigious of which, the M.V.P. award, is once again garnering serious debate. In the N.L. there are 3 players currently in the hunt for the revered award: Andruw Jones, Albert Pujols, and Derrek Lee. In the A.L., however, there are only 2 players still in contention: Yankees 3B, Alex Rodriguez and Red Sox DH, David Ortiz. It is this "race" that I will be talking about today.
For those of you who don't know (and for those who do as well but need a reminder), practically every single advanced metric gives A-Rod a clear advantage over Ortiz. EqA? Check (.335 to .327). OPS? Check (1.030 to 1.024). VORP? Check (93.1 to 80.3). Linear Weights? Check (126.15 to 121.33). Win Shares? Check (31 to 27).
But this isn't going to be a statistical study (although it will have some numbers). I know most of you still clamoring for the Man Who Never Forgets™ to win the MVP don't give those numbers much credence, so no need to break out the calculators. This will be straight up analysis straight from the jungle that any idiot could understand.
To start off, you're going to have to allow me some assumptions, some ground rules if you will:
First assumption, A-Rod and Ortiz's raw offensive value (that is, simply how they have hit without considering game state, runners on base, etc.) are roughly equal -- OPS of 1.030 to 1.024 as I type this. Well, if you consider that Yankee Stadium has traditionally played as a pitcher's park, especially towards righties, and Ortiz plays in, well, Fenway, A-Rod comes out even further ahead. But for the purposes of this article, let's just say that it's equal.
Second assumption, Ortiz in 2005 has been a better clutch hitter than A-Rod. I haven't really seen "clutch" be properly defined, and most studies that have actually defined clutch were either unsatisfactory or concluded that there was no such thing as "clutch." Game state analysis, BA w/ RISP, OPS w/ RISP, OPS close and late, choose whichever stat you want. Nevertheless, there are clutch situations and this year, Ortiz has performed better than A-Rod has. So, for the purpose of this article, I will concede that Ortiz is more clutch.
Third assumption, 3rd base is a more difficult position to play than DH. I mean, actually fielding your position somewhere to the left of the defensive spectrum has to be harder than sitting around, right? I know that's quite the assumption, after all Ortiz has to listen to Curt Schilling and Kevin Millar wax poetic while all A-Rod has to do is cover the whole left side of the infield (compulsory Jeter defense joke).
Final assumption, completely anecdotal evidence such as "Ortiz is teh awesome!!!111one1one! Papi always hits walk off homeruns while A-Rod slaps things and has blue lips and gets meaningless homeruns in games the Yankees are either winning or losing big and he slaps things, too!!!!!" is completely retarded and is nothing but a refuge for people who have been beaten with facts.
If you disagree with any of these assumptions, then there's really nothing for us to discuss and you'd be better off not reading further to save time. I suggest going for a nice bike ride, taking a long walk on the beach, throwing yourself into oncoming traffic, reading to the elderly, or spending a romantic evening with the person you love.
Basically, what it comes down to is that the bulk of the argument of Ortiz for M.V.P lies in his seeming "clutchness." This apparently overcomes A-Rod's advantage when you look just at who has created more offense; it overcomes A-Rod's even greater advantage when you compare his offense relative to his peers at 3B while doing the same with Ortiz compared to his peers at DH; it also apparently negates the value of having very good to great defense at 3B.
Let's analyze clutchness then. Is a solo home run in the 9th inning of a tie game more important than a solo home run in the 1st? Don't they both count for 1 run? Game state analysis says that all things being equal, the 9th inning home run is more important because when you hit a home run in the 9th inning your team is more likely to win than if you hit one in the 1st inning. While this may be true, it doesn't take away from the fact that the 1st inning solo shot counts just as much as one in the 9th inning. Winning a game 1-0 when a player hits a homerun in the 1st inning is worth just the same as winning on a walk-off homerun, is it not? The value comes from the homerun; the value doesn't come from the player not only being lucky enough to come up in the 9th inning, but also being able to come through in that one AB.
Let us go back to our assumption that both players have roughly equal offensive value. Does Ortiz only hit his homeruns in the clutch? Are all his hits clutch hits? Does A-Rod, in fact, not hit in the clutch? Even if we give Ortiz credit for being clutch, thereby increasing his offensive value, is the increase substantially so? As Rob Neyer pointed out recently in a chat, even given that Ortiz is teh bomb!11!uno1!dos!1one1!tres!1quatorce!11, that he hits really awesome in the clutch, that his clutchitudeness is so large that it is the only intangible thing able to be seen from space, does it overcome the immense positional and overall hitting advantage held by A-Rod?
Remember, ANYONE who can hit can "play" DH adequately. Those who can hit as good as or better than Ortiz, all while playing stellar defense at the hot corner, are few and far between. There are other players in the majors who would be a better DH than Ortiz is right now. There's not one player in the majors that would be a better all-around 3B than A-Rod. If you were to ask A-Rod to DH he could do it. Could you ask Ortiz to play 3B? Well you could, and just hope that Ortiz' family stampedes over the runner whenever a ball is hit in his direction.
There is value in playing a defensive position. The game against Toronto where A-Rod corralled a hot shot from the bat of Shea Hillenbrand to start a game-ending double play with the Yankees up by only one had value. What does Ortiz do on the bench when his team is playing defense? Cheer his team on, gently massage Terry Francona's temple, and eat unknown objects for his teammates' enjoyment?
Consider that, as a team, The Red Sox have recorded 3993 outs defensively. David Ortiz recorded 88 of them, the majority of which any moron with a glove (image) could have caught. The Yankees, on the other hand, have recorded 3977 outs and A-Rod has had a hand in 390 of them. As a whole, the Yankees have gotten 302 outs or roughly 101 innings from A-Rod's defense alone. Boston? They got nearly 30. Baseball is played on both sides of the field. Value exists not only offensively but defensively as well. Even if you don't buy that A-Rod is a great fielder (debatable, but let's just assume that he isn't), the fact that he's able to play his position adequately without hurting his team adds to his value tremendously.
I don't delude myself to think that I can convince people who don't want to be convinced, but I hope that, at the very least, I've gotten you to at least think about the issue. Because KNOWLEDGE IS POWER!
