With the draft upcoming, we were wondering about the Yankees 1st round pick, the last of the round, at 30th overall. It seems to be a draft where, after the top 3-4 talents, some pretty high ceiling guys could drop based on performance and the Boras factor. We know the rule IV draft is in constant flux, and this is only a snapshot of what is going on *right now*, but we asked Patrick Elbert of PGCrosschecker.com for his opinions on some perspective draftees, however from the point of view of an organization that can spend as much as it takes.
 

Q: Would he be an absurd reach for the Yanks to take Neil Ramirez (RHP, HS) at #30? Reading scouting reports, it seems that he has a lot of projectability, so given their recent success with NoMaas favorite, Nardi Contreras developing arms, is it possible that the Yankees feel that they could unlock that attic door to the roof with Ramirez?

A: I'm a big fan of Ramirez. He pitched against college level talent last summer in the Cal Ripken League, where he was named the league's top prospect. He looked great at the Aflac All-American Classic, and was constantly named one of the top prospects at notable showcase events all last summer. He has the pitching moxie to go along with present day stuff, and the only reason he's not considered a first round pick is because he has been somewhat inconsistent this spring. Had the draft been held at the end of last summer, he would have been a first-round lock. The Yankees could absolutely have a steal with Ramirez at the end of the first round, as I'm not even sure if it matters that they have had so much success developing arms recently under Contreras. It certainly doesn't hurt.
 

Q: Should we kill ourselves if Jake McGeary (LHP, HS) goes 30th?

A: Only if he chooses to go to Stanford, although I don't think the Yankees have ever met a player they couldn't sign, so if they take him, I'm guessing that would be a non-issue. McGeary is a legitimate first-round talent, and could go in the 15-25 range based on talent. Similar to Ramirez, whenever you don't hear as much about a certain player that was previously believed to be a first-round talent, you have to wonder how much their college commitment is going to come into play (Georgia Tech for Ramirez). Otherwise you should be very happy with McGeary, unless the fact that he's a Red Sox fan is too much to take.
 

Q: Matt Laporta (RHB, NCAA) had a huge rebound season and the staff of NoMaas sees him as exactly what the Yankees need: A big time bat that is close, so it won't have time to deteriorate on the farm. Is there a chance he falls to the Yankees, and if so do you see his selection as a good one? Despite Boras, how much leverage is lost with Laporta being a senior?

A: While LaPorta doesn't have much leverage due to the fact that he's a college senior, and really doesn't have any options left other than the pro ranks, his comeback season this year has helped propel him back into the discussion for the first round. He may be looking for slot money comparable to a mid-first round pick, but I don't see that being that big of a problem, and I'm not even sure he falls all the way to the 30th pick. Bats are particularly thin this year, especially from the college level, and as good as a fit LaPorta would be in the Yankees system, he could be even a better fit in the Tigers system, if he makes it that far.
 

Q: Michael Burgess (LHB, HS) is bit undersized height-wise for a prospect, and supposedly has major holes in his swing. How fixable do you see these holes? Is he worth a 1st round selection to the Yankees? Is he the next highly drafted, highly talented, high school OF to fizzle out for the Yanks?

A: Burgess is similar to Ramirez in that if the draft was held at the end of last summer, he would have been a no-brainer first round pick, and could have gone within the top 10 picks. While he has some big holes to his swing, his biggest problem is that he has been pressing too much this year, and is trying to crush every single pitch thrown to him instead of staying within himself. However, the power potential is just far too good to ignore, and I think if he gets with the right organization that is able to get him to recognize the importance of staying within himself with every pitch and from AB to AB, they could have themselves an incredible ballplayer. The sky is the limit with Burgess, who not only has very good power potential, but is also a very savvy overall ballplayer with a cannon for an arm.
 

Q: Justin Jackson (RHB, HS) is the guy that causes arguments amongst the NoMaas staff. Some love him, some are put off by him. What is your opinion about his bat? Is he a reasonable usage of the 30th pick? If both Jackson and a consensus 1st round pitching prospect are available at 30, whom should the Yanks choose?

A: Jackson is an interesting player, because there are some people that swear by him, convinced that his bat won't be a problem. He's probably not going to be a perennial All-Star at the plate, but he is a great all-around ballplayer, and his glove won't slow him down one bit. I personally like his chances.

A player that profiles similar to Jackson at a similar stage in his career, J.J. Hardy, had quite a few people doubt his bat coming out of high school, and now he's one of the best young shortstops in the game.

That said, talent-for-talent, if there is a consensus first round pitching prospect available, I would probably take the arm over Jackson (especially from the Yankees perspective, since shortstop seems to be the least of their concerns, even if I do always stress taking the best player available), but then again, the draft is thin at shortstop and deep with pitching, so if you pass on a talent like Jackson you're not likely to get a comparable player later, like you might with a pitcher.
 

Q: Andrew Brackman (RHP, NCAA) Another guy that has NoMaas readers divided. He is freefalling now due to off-field distractions and on-field performance. Are Brackman's pricetag and question marks too much, or is his potential so favorable that he is a good pick for New York at #30?

A: I definitely think Brackman is a candidate to fall. Having a dead arm at this point in the season just isn't good for his draft status, and it doesn't help that he has been largely inconsistent this season. Some games he looks as good as advertised, and some games he looks good, but not great. This is his first season focusing purely on baseball, so a great deal of patience is required, but he isn't as polished as most to all of the top rated college right-handed pitchers that have been available in recent years.

He would be a great pick at #30. Based on pure talent, he's a top 10 overall selection. A wise course of action would be to draft him, allow him to play summer ball on the Cape and then determine whether or not you're prepared to make the usual large investment involved with players advised by Scott Boras.
 

Q: Matt Harvey (RHP, HS) The pipedream. Is there any chance...ANY CHANCE...that Harvey falls to the Yanks?

A: Harvey is another candidate to fall in the draft, so yes, I believe there is a chance that Harvey falls to the Yankees. He's committed to North Carolina, which is always a tough school to pry away talent, as Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard proved a few years ago. Again, the Scott Boras connection will play a part in this as well, and while another Boras client and UNC commit, Rick Porcello, has had a sensational spring, Harvey hasn't been as good consistently.
 

Q: Jake Arrieta and Josh Smoker - Chances of falling to the Yankees (especially Smoker), and if they do, are they worth the pick?

A: This is definitely a recurring theme when people are discussing the Yankees first-round pick. Arrieta has a good chance to fall. He's another Boras guy, and while he has the perfect pitcher's frame and stuff, he's been pretty inconsistent this year with his command, and has walked far too many batters.

Smoker has no chance to fall. I think he goes in the middle of the first.
 

Q: We have a NoMaas reader who teaches at Kinnelon High School, home of LHP Sean Bierman. What are your thoughts on the lefty, and where do you think he will get popped in the draft? Can he be talked out of his Vandy commitment?

A: I'll tackle the Vanderbilt part of the question first. It seems very unlikely at this point in time that he will be drafted early enough for him not to go to college. Not that he doesn't have the talent, but Vanderbilt is one of those schools that rarely loses their top recruits to the pros. Factors like this often lead to players not being drafted at all.

He's a very good pitcher, similar to McGeary in that he knows how to pitch by changing speeds and commanding the strike zone. Some feel his ceiling is limited, as he tops out around 91 and doesn't project to throw much harder. But there are plenty of lefties in the big-leagues that get by with great success by pitching in a similar fashion to how Bierman does.

And Vanderbilt is known for developing left-handed pitchers. Starting with Jeremy Sowers and moving on to Ryan Mullins, David Price, and even Mike Minor, who is one of the best freshman in the country, Bierman has probably taken notice of this with hopes of being the next in line. Vandy's amazing campus and athletic facilities don't hurt.
 

Q: Is it a distinct possibility that Weiters drops dramatically to the 30th pick due to a $10 million demand, causing the entire NoMaas staff to pass out, or will he be snapped up in the top 5 regardless of the money?

A: Wieters may fall to the middle of the first round, similar to both Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver a couple of years ago, but I don't think he falls much further than that. If the Devil Rays don't take Wieters first overall, despite the fact that everyone thinks David Price will be the pick no matter what, I do think Wieters slides out of the top 10. There just isn't a good match with the teams that are picking in the top half of the first round. Not so much based off of need, but based off of those willing to take on that kind of financial commitment. Which is really a shame, because players like Wieters don't come around very often.

I think he'll go in the 13-18 range, with the Indians, Braves and Cardinals making a lot of sense to me.

Back to the Devil Rays, don't rule out the possibility. As I noted, catchers like Wieters don't come around very often, and while he may be a difficult sign, players advised by Boras are advised well, and they know that being the first overall selection means a lot of money, more so than they could get at any other draft slot, even with the usual negotiating tactics. Meaning, if the D-Rays do take him, their could be a deal in place to make it happen, and as Yankees fans, you don't want to see Wieters in the middle of what already looks like a scary lineup for years to come.
 

Q: Finally, if they were all available at #30, can you please rank the following prospects from an unlimited funds standpoint, but also taking into consideration how they would fit the Yankees organization:

Harvey
Laporta
Burgess
Arrieta
Smoker
J. Jackson
Brackman
Mesoraco
Main
Ahrens
McGeary

A:
1) Ahrens
2) Brackman
3) LaPorta
4) Josh Smoker
5) Devin Mesoraco
6) Matt Harvey
7) Jake McGeary
8) Michael Burgess
9) Jake Arrieta
10) Justin Jackson
11) Michael Main

I put Ahrens first because of the Yankees organizational needs, a system that to me looks as though it needs more bats than arms. I also put him first because he's probably the least likely to fall, along with Josh Smoker and even Devin Mesoraco, who has gaining first-round momentum all spring, and may not make it to the 20th overall pick much less the 30th. Ahrens is one of the better pure bats available in this year's draft, probably just behind Josh Vitters and Mike Moustakas.

Brackman is just an unreal talent, and like I said earlier, based on pure talent, there is no way he should fall to the 30th overall pick. Therefore, if he does, and money isn't an object, you can't let him slide.

LaPorta, Smoker and Mesoraco, as noted above, are less likely to slide.

Harvey, McGeary and Burgess all have a world full of talent. I really think Harvey is UNC bound with McGeary heading to Stanford, but we'll find out in a few days. Burgess will probably get drafted in the sandwich round by a team that is willing to take a chance on his raw talent.

Arrieta to me is underwhelming. I like his stuff and stature, but in such a thin draft class for college righties, he had every chance this season to make the most of the situation and didn't step up.

Jackson is a solid overall prospect whose offensive ceiling I'm not sure of, and I'm afraid Main is going to need a lot of patience before he gets close to the big-leagues.

Patrick Ebert is affiliated with both Perfect Game USA and Brewerfan.net, and can be contacted via email at pebert@brewerfan.net.