It’s obvious that the Yankees need a top-of-the-line starter if they want to seriously compete for the World Series next year.  Looking at this year’s free agent class, however, leaves you wondering if there’s even one out there.  The two most prominent free agents the Yankees have been speculated to be looking at are Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt, and both come with significant risks:

Barry Zito is perhaps the game’s most durable pitcher, yet his fastball has declined significantly the last few years, which has led to fewer strikeouts and more walks.  Zito looks, at least in part, to be this generation’s Tom Glavine, though: a pitcher that always outperforms his peripherals.  The question, however, is how much of this is due to the park and defense he plays in front of?  Zito is always among the league leaders in popups induced, but at the same time he plays in the park with the most foul territory.

He’s going to be paid as an Ace (think Roy Oswalt’s extension as a minimum), and seems likely to be a glorified innings eater that’s a #4 or 5 by the end of his deal.  Maybe his old pitching coach Rick Peterson can tweak his mechanics so he can regain his old stuff, but a move to the Bronx seems ill advised at best.

Jason Schmidt is rumored to be Plan B for the Yankees, and some in the organization even wanted him more than Matsuzaka.  Considering the geriatrics the Giants generally employ in the outfield, it’s hard to say Schmidt particularly benefited from team defense, but he played in a park that favors flyball pitchers.  His stuff is better than Zito’s, even though his fastball no longer reaches the high 90’s, but he hasn’t dominated since 2004, suffered from injuries and ineffectiveness in 2005, and will be 34 in 2007.  For a one or two year deal he’d be worth the risk, but he’s going to command a 4-year deal that will almost certainly exceed the $40 million Pavano received two off-seasons ago, and will probably reach the $54 million Damon received last year.

After these two the Yankees have been rumored to be interested in Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, and Randy Wolf.  The former two are looking for a Pavano deal, and the way this off-season is shaping up they may just get it.  It should go without saying that both have as many question marks as Zito and Schmidt with almost none of the upside.  Wolf is interesting as he’s likely looking for a one year deal to prove his health, but even the most optimistic projections would have him as no better than a #3 or 4 for a playoff team.

It would seem that the Yankees would be smart just to stand pat this off-season, and see if they can sign Mark Buehrle, Chris Carpenter, or Carlos Zambrano.  There’s a free agent out there, however, that is everything the Yankees are looking for, yet for some reason no one in the media has suggested him: Roger Clemens.

His detractors will cite playing in the NL as the reason for his recent dominance, and I’m not going to argue it’s not a big part of it, but there are plenty of reasons to think he can still be an Ace in the AL under the right circumstances.

First, while he wasn’t great his last year with the Yankees, the Yankees also had the worst defense in the majors (by far), especially up the middle, as Jeter, Almonte, Bernie, and Sori all played as though they had cement blocks on their feet and hands.

Second, the Yankees had one of the worst pitching coaches in the majors.  Maybe it’s not a big deal with someone like Clemens, but it still bears mentioning.  Stottlemyre, at least in his final years with the team, seemed more interested in terrorizing Batman and the citizens of Gotham than he did helping out Yankees pitchers.

Third, while Clemens has benefited from the move to the NL, it’s hard to argue against him unless you want to swear off NL pitchers entirely.  Over the last 3 years he has allowed 115 fewer runs than the average NL starter would have pitching the same number of innings; even with his late start in 2006 this still is tops over the last 3 years, so you can say without hesitation that he’s been the NL’s best pitcher since switching leagues.

My main concern, however, was that he was benefiting significantly from facing pitchers, and that his stats wouldn’t look so dominant without them.  I found this to be completely false, however.  To look at how he performed against non-pitchers, I used OPS+, so we can get his OPS against compared to average.  Remember that while 100 is average, for pitchers the less it is, the better.
 
Over the last 3 years Clemens has an OPS+ against of 52, and once you eliminate pitchers, it’s at 58.  How impressive is this?  From 2004-2006 only Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and Jason Schmidt were able to post an OPS+ against lower than 58 while pitching 100 innings or more.  What’s more impressive about this, however, is that this includes their line against pitchers.  Only Randy in 2004 (51 OPS+ against) was able to best Clemens’ average that includes pitchers.  Think you can’t get anymore impressed?  Well Clemens is the only pitcher to post an OPS+ against lower than 60 in more than one season.  That’s pretty impressive for an old man.

Now OPS+ isn’t perfect, even more so for pitchers, as pitchers sometimes perform significantly better or worse than their component stats would suggest, but Clemens performs pretty close, and perhaps even better than his components would suggest.  This doesn’t include the benefit to being able to “coast” through one spot of the lineup, and it would be hard for any analysis to actually do so, but this makes me comfortable that he would still be one of the AL’s best starters, and almost certainly the Yankees’ best pitcher next year.

The best part about signing Clemens hasn’t even been mentioned yet.  He would only want a one-year deal.  If he does flop, there’s no worrying about how his salary and roster spot will impact future moves because we can just say Adios and Sayonara!  At his age he’s obviously a risk, but for 2006 I would feel more comfortable with him on the mound than any of our alternatives.  If he wants to go another year and is willing to leave Houston, I say get it done.  Give him the money, give him the perks, and give him the praise and attention he wants.  We’ll be better next year and will still be free to spend big money on a guy that is actually worthy of a long-term contract after 2007.  What’s not to love?