Meyer's Mailbag
Response to Cain-Cano trade proposal
October 23, 2008
 
Robert C. writes: How the hell can we as NoMass readers try to ensure this happens?  Have an inside line to the Yankees fax machine so we just repeatedly send this?
Lane Meyer:  Well, Robert, here’s the thing: we know Cashman reads the site because he’s said so previously in an interview. He’s also said that it’s purely for entertainment purposes, and he doesn’t let fan emotions influence his decisions. That said, as soon as we can get a fax number it will be on the front page. Make sure to check back periodically.

 
Yu H. writes: I think you need to take into account that Matt Cain’s pitchers’ abuse points been really REALLY high over the last few years. In fact, he’s been in the top 10 three years running.   While it’s not a sure fire measure that Cain will get hurt, it is a serious worry. If we look at guys in their early to mid 20s that finished around the top 20 on the list over the last few years, some seriously scary names pop up: D-train, Noah Lowry, Mark Prior, Justin Verlander...and NONE of them scored as high as Matt Cain over the last 3 season. The only true exception [to] the norm has been Carlos Zambrano.
Lane Meyer: Let me tell Yu something. Pitcher Abuse Points are certainly a consideration, but to call Matt Cain a serious worry is overstating the case by quite a bit. Noah Lowry had oblique, elbow, and forearm trouble prior to him having wrist surgery this year. Mark Prior appeared among the leaders of the PAP list one time in his career, and then he was a mess. Willis has a very unorthodox delivery that many predicted would lead to injury. Matt Cain has been high up on the PAP list for three straight years now. Mat Cain has not missed a start in three years. Matt Cain has not reported ANY injury – even a menial one that did not cause him to miss any time – in three years. Matt Cain has used a solid delivery for the last three years. There are no indications (save for a minor one, and I’ll let you guys find it) that he is even minimally affected by the workload he has shouldered.

 
Nick N. writes:  I just don't see the point in trading away a player with Cano's proven potential to get Matt Cain when the Yankees could potentially sign Mussina, Pettitte, Sabathia, Sheets, or Burnett to add to a rotation of Wang, Chamberlain, and Aceves.  Throughout the season, NoMaas.org has made is very obvious that they aren't big fans of Robinson Cano.  Yet, he is still a very big part of the team, and I don't think the Yankees should be doing whatever they can to get rid of him when there are other options out there that will allow them to put the best possible team on the field.
Lane Meyer: Nick, it’s not that we want the Yankees to dump Cano; in fact I explicitly stated the obvious in the article. The whole idea here is to trade Cano, a definite building block for a franchise, for another building block. The goal in dealing him is to remove some of the guesswork and volatility that Cano brings to the table – get a building block that has a bit more strength and stability, but maybe not the same aesthetic appeal.

 
Alexander D. writes: Which prospect/current player would be the difference between making this trade and not. Say the Giants asked for Ian Kennedy. Do you still do it? How about Austin Romine? I would not add Montero, Jackson, McAllister, or Melancon in that deal, but would probably think long and hard with parting with any ONE additional prospect.
Lane Meyer: Alex, while it may be obvious, I would definitely include any of the following: Gardner, Melky, Miranda, and Kennedy. As much of a prospect lover as I am (and you all know this), I would consider other arms like Heredia, McAllister (I would literally cry if he was actually traded in the deal), or Aceves. Guys like Hughes, Romine, Montero, Jackson, or Brackman would only be involved if there was more coming back from the Giants – and I don’t mean a salary-dump.

 
Tim S. writes: I like the idea of the Cano for Cain deal very much.  Hopefully it will occur to Brian Cashman as well.  Cano is a cancer.  His poor work ethic and careless attitude rub off on the rest of the team.  The "experts" will tell you it would be selling low on Cano, but frankly I don't think he is ever going to be better than what he was last year.
Lane Meyer: Tim, while I’d love to see Cano cashed in for a good return, I can’t agree with much of anything you wrote. I think Cano is a tremendous baseball player when he’s focused and making good contact. I don’t think he’s a cancer at all, and in fact, if you’ll recall, it was his at-ease attitude that many vets credited with loosening up the team and making them more productive in recent years. Not that I buy that, but the point is his attitude appears to be much more of a problem when the Yankees aren’t winning. I’d be shocked if he ever had another year as bad as this past one in his entire career.

 
Robert P. writes: Please send your editorial to Cashman via fax or email, but somehow, reach him with it.  If the Yanks can do something like that, they don't need to spend a trillion dollars on Sabathia.
Lane Meyer: Guys, once again, we don’t currently have a fax number for the Yankees, but we’re working on it. I promise, as soon as we have one we’ll post it on the front page. Oh, and part of the point in acquiring Cain is that it has absolutely no affect on the Yankees ability to sign someone like Sabathia.

 
Ender B. writes: Regarding Cano, you state that he had 'a putrid '08'. I disagree somewhat. He had a putrid April where he hit .151 with 5XBH's in 114 PA's. After the first month of the season he hit .297, and his babip normalized from .156 in April to well over .300 for the rest of the season, in line with his career .320 babip. In other words, he stunk in April due to some bad luck and the usual Cano slow start (.237 career hitter in April) but the rest of the way he was 'regular' Robbie Cano.
Lane Meyer: Ender, I’m sorry, but this just isn’t true. In 2006, Cano posted an OPS of .890, and in 2007 it was .841. His highest monthly OPS in 2008 was the .847 he put up in July and for the season he ended at .715. He was absolutely not “regular Robbie Cano” after April. Again though, this doesn’t mean that I think that this is the player he’s going to be going forward. More importantly, people citing this as "just a down year" are losing sight of what his production for the season actually was. Cano had an OPS+ of 88. What superstar baseball player do you know that has a baseline OPS+ in his career of 115-120, yet posted a number well under 100 after multiple seasons at that baseline level? I absolutely believe that Cano will rebound and that he had some bad luck last year, but the fact of the matter is that he is entirely capable of putting up a full season in which he is noticeably below league average.

 
Chris P. writes: It really is a risk either way you break it down, but like you said Cano has flashed brilliance at times, whereas Cain hasn't nearly as much, if really at all.
Lane Meyer: Chris, sorry for truncating your e-mail, but we pay by the letter on this server and none of us are making a front office salary…yet. I selected this part because I’m not sure if people realize just how brilliant Cain has been at times. In his last 11 starts of 2007 (August and September) he threw 70 innings, gave up 56 hits, and had a K/BB rate of 4.79 (that’s elite territory). He’s made 66 starts in the past two years, and in more than half of them (36) he’s given up 2 earned runs or less. Couple that with the fact that he is a workhorse that gets deep into games, and you have a pretty good pitcher who has a significant chance to have a special career.

 
Seymour writes: I know that Sabean isn't considered the brightest GM in the business, but can we be sure that he'd OK a trade for a player (Cano) who looked terrible in 2008? Cain was slightly worse in 2008 than he was in 2007, so maybe he will put that into consideration?
Lane Meyer: Seymour, you make a good point, and in the end what I tried to do in suggesting the trade is find something that is realistically workable. However, we aren’t GMs, so we just don’t know what they’re actually thinking. What we do know is that the Giants are desperate for middle of the order bats, to the point where they handed Aaron Rowand $55 million last offseason. We know that they contemplated Alex Rios for Lincecum or Cain last offseason, so much so that Sabean acknowledged it to the media:

"There's really only one scenario which I spoke to yesterday which is intriguing. But not intriguing enough to pull the trigger. It's just one of the things we haven't shut off yet. There are some things we've shut off and some things we've kept alive. That's one that's still alive."

So it is a season later and the Giants are no closer to having an impact bat in their lineup. Cain had another year in which his losses about double his wins, and at the same time Lincecum went 18-6. You just know the idea that “Lincecum managed to win 18 games with the same lineup” is somewhere in the minds of the FO. What a lot of people are forgetting is that while Cano had a bad year in 2007, Cain has a few red-flags to old school evaluators. He has a W-L record that is absolutely dreadful and he is not very efficient in the way he works. Like Cano, he’s not exactly a polished product, and in comparing the two, Cano has already achieved the greater level of success in the eyes of GMs: All-Star, Silver Slugger, a year in which he hit .342, etc. There are a lot of reasons that even someone who was ignorant to advanced statistics would place a high value on Cano even after his disappointing season.


 
Dan K writes: Your proposal makes a lot of sense, but if Hudson is such an adequate replacement at 2nd, why wouldn't the Giants simply sign him and keep Cain for themselves?
Lane Meyer: Dan, the Giants are looking to build for the future. Their farm system has a lot of really nice players, and they look like the type of team that could make a run in 3-4 years if everything breaks right. Hudson is over 30 and does not have franchise cornerstone potential. If the Giants were looking to compete next year, then I’d say signing O-Dog and keeping Cain is the way to go, but they’re not even close to being in the rearview mirror of the leader of the miserable NL West.

 
Irish5yankee writes: Regarding the Cano for Cain idea and replacing Cano,  what, if any, middle infield options do we have in our system that can do at least a serviceable job if none of the free agent 2B options pan out?
Lane Meyer: Irish, the Yankees don’t really have anyone internally that’s closer to playing second base in the Bronx for a full season other than Cody Ransom. Although Ransom is an interesting player, I’d say that’s a last ditch effort. All of the major middle-infield prospects the Yankees have are in the low minors at this point. They would either have to sign a free agent or trade for a second baseman to fill out the ML roster.