Ca$hmoney doesn't whiff on Swisher
by NoMaas' Brisco County Jr.
November 13, 2008

The Yankees traded RHP Jeff Marquez, IF Wilson Betemit, and RHP Jhonny Nunez to the Chicago White Sox for OF/1B Nick Swisher and, just to mess with our minds, RHP Kanekoa Texeira.

In a word: Steal.

First, Marquez. Marquez was drafted in the first round in 2004, and showed moderate ability despite no discernible out pitch or particularly impressive G/F rates. That is, until 2008. In 2008, Marquez' stock dropped substantially, as he spent most of the year either injured or completely ineffective. He was not one of the organization's better arms, and will likely not be missed.

Second, Betemit. You probably know this one. Handsome black man, struck out a lot, occasional left-handed pop. Betemit was a guy who excited many of us but never managed to pan out as a regular. Too many slumps, too many strikeouts, too few hits. His defense was adequate at the corners, but he gave up too much range at second base or shortstop. While he was a respectable trade chip, Betemit is not the kind of guy you want playing a substantial role on your team. As far as his role on the Yankees, finding a reserve infielder should be easy enough.

Finally, Jhonny "Peralta" Nunez. If you are as nerdy as I am, you may remember that Nunez was acquired at the trade deadline this past season for SS Alberto Gonzalez. If you are not as nerdy as I am, you don't know who Gonzalez is, or you aren't reading this at all. Nunez is a decent relief prospect who will be 23 later this month and had some success in AA this year. He's not closer material, but he could be an adequate middle reliever within the next few years. This loss is effectively offset by the acquisition of Texeira, who pitched well in AA this year, also at age 22.

Between these three players, there is virtually no immediate value, and there is very little potential for long-term value. This is a package that I would give up for any quality role player. Nick Swisher is not a role player, and he will be in the starting lineup for the Yankees this year. As such, this deal is incredibly one-sided.

"But Brisco," you exclaim, "Nick Swisher only hit .219 last year, and Joe Morgan told me that's bad." Right, and Joe Morgan just lost his job. So there.*

You see, my little snowflakes, batting average is a statistic that varies a gre... wait, you already know all this. You're at NoMaas.org, home of the baddest SABR-dorks on the Interwebs! The point is that Swish had his career worst BABIP last year (.249, after .301 in 2007) while posting his best-ever LD% (20.9%, vs. 17.5% in 2007). This strongly indicates that his batting average will go up next year, and since Swisher has a career IsoPD of .100 and IsoP of .207, a batting average in the .260 range could make him a very valuable hitter. Swisher patience led to his leading all major league hitters in P/PA (4.51!) this past year as well, so he's not a guy who gets himself out.

There is, however, one caveat to all of this wonderment and excititude. Swisher does not solve the lineup problems by his little lonesome. If the Yankees continue to pursue superpimp Mark Teixeira, this could make for a very formidable offense next year. Given that Damon can play an adequate CF, and Swisher and Nady are both very good defensive corner outfielders, this would be the ideal situation. If the Yankees acquired a quality CFer like Mike Cameron, that would also make this an excellent move. If they end up trading Hideki Matsui and add two more players, even better. However, if the Yankees go into 2009 with Swisher at first base and a Melky/Gardner platoon in center field, I will be a grumpy cowboy.

Just sayin'.

-Brisco

* He's a hojillionaire, he'll get over it.

Questions? Comments? New ethnic slang? Drop me a line at peter.bard@gmail.com.