Carl Pavano needs to be dealt before spring training. It’s that simple.

“But, Lane,” you say, “why don’t we wait and see what he can bring to the table for the Yankees. If he’s healthy, he could be a solid addition.”

Well, let’s take a look at this. When fully healthy and starting, Glass Carl has put together two full seasons: 2003 and 2004. In these seasons he has produced ERA+ figures of 94 and 137 respectively. That’s pretty much a 50/50 chance of him being above average. Looking a bit closer at these seasons, he produced these numbers in a pitchers’ park and with an above average infield defense behind him. Yes, yes, I know that ERA+ is park adjusted, however there is no way to compensate for the effect that pitching in a pitcher’s park in front of a very good defense has on the WAY a pitcher pitches. Park adjustments can only adjust the numbers actually posted, not the methods that were used to achieve them. I will guarantee you that there is a tangible difference in the style and mentality of a pitcher throwing in a hitters’ park as opposed to one that was minimally conducive to offensive production.

Basically, Glass Carl has produced one exceptional full season in his 8 year career, and that was done in an environment that was a fantastic catalyst to run prevention. Yet and still, out of the two full seasons that he has pitched as a starter, he was very good in one, and below league average in the other. So if the odds are about even that he is going to be an above average pitcher, why not hang onto him and take the chance that he is going to come close to repeating his ’04? The answer, quite simply, is that the odds are not even. There are other results Glass Carl has posted, and other circumstances within his career that put the odds at substantially less than even for him to emulate the campaign where he posted a 137 ERA+.

First, just about 70% of the over 1000 innings pitched in his career were done at an ERA+ below 100.  What else can be said about this except “that sucks, Lane?”

Second, and probably most importantly, Glass Carl has been injury prone throughout his career. The troublesome aspect of this is that the injuries have been exclusively related to his arm. He has been on the disabled list in his career for the following reasons:

*Shoulder tendonitis (on three separate occasions)
*Elbow tendonitis
*Triceps tendonitis
*Rotator cuff tendonitis
*Bone chips in his elbow

This not only signals the potential for breakdown in the future, but breakdown that may be irreparable. The bottom line here: Glass Carl has been healthy enough to pitch a full season for only 25% of his career.

Third, and finally, there is circumstantial evidence to suggest that he is not enamored of pitching in the pressure packed fishbowl of NYC, and would prefer to be in an environment where he feels less harassed. Glass Carl doesn’t seem overly communicative either, as is evinced by a quote from The Riddler last year when he said “I don't get much feedback from him” in regards to finding out his injury status. This last point is, again, relatively circumstantial, however it does bear mentioning as it could certainly affect a player’s performance.

In summarizing Pavano’s qualities we arrive at the notions that he isn’t that good, is liable to get injured, and may be cranky. That isn’t exactly the kind of pitcher you want to take a wait and see approach with.

Which brings us to this offseason. The past several months have seen the market for pitching go absolutely haywire, and there may never be a more fertile soil in which to bury Glass Carl. Consider the following:

*Kevin Millwood got 5 years at $12 million per
*AJ Burnett got 5 years at $11 million per.
*Jarrod Washburn got 4 years, at $9 million per.
*Matt Morris got 3 years at $9 million per.
*Kenny Rogers, at age 41, got 2 years at $8 million per.
*Esteban Loaiza got 3 years at $7 million per.
*Paul Byrd got 2 years at $7 million per.
*Jamie Moyer, at age 43, got 1 year at $5.5 million
*Brett Tomko got 2 years at $4.5 million per.
*Scott Elarton got 2 years at $4 million per.

To be honest, some of those deals scared me more than skiing the K-12, and I went down that son of a bitch on one ski. Teams are really desperate for marginal pitchers, and are giving them insane money to prove it.

On top of this, we have seen two major salary dump trades:

*Edgar Renteria gets reduced to $6 million per and is traded for uber-prospect Andy Marte.

*Javier Vazquez, who will make $24 million over the next two seasons, was dealt for a package that netted the Diamondbacks bluechip OF prospect Chris Young.

As you can see, these deals go beyond just paring salary from a team’s payroll in the traditional sense of a “salary dump.” Teams are actually getting back value for their unwanted, bloated contracts so long as the player is relatively young and has exhibited a modicum of talent.

If the Yankees are willing to pick up between $6 and $9 million of Glass Carl’s contract, they will in effect be making him a $6 or $7 million per annum pitcher…which isn’t so outlandish considering the market that has been established. Additionally, given what we have seen transpire on the trading front in the past couple of months, they could probably net a solid corner outfielder in addition to a decent prospect from the deal. This would improve the outfield defense by allowing Sheff to be the fulltime DH, and remove Bernie’s dilapidated bat from the everyday lineup. Perhaps they can swing Pavano and cash for Kearns and a prospect? Or maybe, if Big Stein is willing to take on the salary, they could take Abreu off Philly’s hands for Pavano, Henn/Melky, and cash? Could Aubrey Huff be had if the Yanks picked up enough money on Carl’s deal?

Whatever they get for him aside, the point of all this is that a deal needs to be consummated BEFORE spring training. The more the Yankees let him pitch, the more chance he has to show his strong suits, and unfortunately for Glass Carl, the two things he does best are pitch to mediocrity and get hurt. The guy is teetering on the brink of losing his reputation as a “talented youngster who just hasn’t put it together,” and falling into the “never has, never will” category. Once he tumbles into that abyss, his value in a trade will be next to nothing. If he fails again this season, he will have descended into that void.

At this point in time, there are likely several GM’s who still view Pavano as an above average pitcher who just hasn’t found the right groove. After all, Dan O’Brien traded two minor leaguers for Tony Womack, a guy who is coming off one of the worst seasons for an outfielder in the history of the game. Ca$h Money needs to find someone to take Glass Carl off his hands while the market is still in this frenzy and Pavano is still healthy. Waiting until he starts throwing would be an egregious mistake, as it only opens the door for the considerable possibility that he sustains further injury and/or sucks.