LM: How much in control of this situation is Johan Santana? Do you think he has a preference of where to play?
JS: I believe he has lots of control over this situation, and I've been told by people close to him that he wants to pitch in New York. Go back and look at his games in New York last year, and compare them with those pitch elsewhere. It looked to me like he was especially geared up to be spectacular in New York.
I believe
Johan wants everything New York has: visibility, the chance to impress
Hall of Fame and Cy Young voters, run support, large payrolls, the chance
to win World Series, large Latin American communities, fame, endorsements,
and, of course Tad's Steaks.
LM: How do you think the Twins rate Joba vs. Hughes vs. Kennedy? Do you think Hughes is essential in any deal, or is it possible that Kennedy could serve as the centerpiece? Have you heard Alan Horne's name at all?
JS:
I can't say I've had exactly that conversation yet, although I plan to.
My impression to date is that they covet Chamberlain but need Hughes, who
may be more of a guaranteed innings eater. One of my collegues wrote that
the Twins might not be able to make a killing on this deal, but I disagree
-- they intend to get the Yanks, Mets, Dodgers and Red Sox bidding against
each other, and they hope to eventually land a player or two who is currently
considered off-limits.
LM: How do you think the potential Garza/Young deal impacts negotiations for Johan?
JS:
I think it dovetails nicely. Young would be the middle-of-the-order power
hitter the Twins need to replace Torii Hunter and eventually become more
of a force (if Young can mature as a hitter and a personality). The Twins'
needs would then be CF, 3B, and starting pitching, which is what they would
try to address in a Santana deal.
LM: We know how historically good he has been, but what are the potential downsides to acquiring the man, the myth, the legend?
JS: Santana has been exceptional, as you know. His two ``down'' seasons were in 2005 and 2007. I thought in 2005 he was the best pitcher in the league and should have won the Cy, but run support limited his victories, which cost him the award. I'd have to place this year in a different category. Santana was good and better than almost anyone else in baseball, but he wasn't quite the same.
Hitters sat on his changeup and hit far more homers off him than they had before, and many of those homers came early in games, and many of those came early in what seemed like important games at the time. In other words, he wasn't giving up homers while up 6-1 in the eighth and trying to avoid walks, he was giving up homers when he should have been at his best and most attentive.
We've
heard plenty of excuses for that: he's tipping his pitches, his elbow was
sore so he couldn't throw his slider, his changeup lacked its usual bite,
but I wonder if he is showing signs of fatigue.
He's
not a big guy. He's about half the size of Clemens. To throw 94 mph, and
to throw his changeup with full arm speed, requires a lot of torque on
that body. He's a diligent worker who stays in great shape, but he may
not have the same longevity as big horses with big legs like Clemens.
I can't
imagine him ever falling apart completely, but if hitters aren't swinging
and missing at his changeup, he'll no longer be a perennial Cy Young contender.
LM: What is Johan like as a person/employee of the Twins? How is he to work with as a beatwriter?
JS: He's very professional, very prideful. I knew him as a Rule 5 draftee and he was much looser back then. Once he started enjoying success, he started limiting access, like many top pitchers. He's still an easy guy to say hello to and chat with, but he tries not to get trapped in long interviews unless they're well set up or he knows you well -- nothing you haven't seen before in New York star player who protects himself.
He has an incredible work ethic. He's one of the first in the clubhouse every day at spring training and he pushes a lot of other pitchers through his routine. While he's professional with the media, he's a prankster and a goofball with his teammates. I know his pitching coach, Rick Anderson, thinks very highly of him.
He's
also become more willing to cite the lack of support he has received, in
the context of his teammates failing or the front office not fielding a
winner. Such honesty doesn't bother me, but it might be more of an issue
in New York, where it would become a more explosive subject.
LM: What is the sentiment in Minnesota about the direction the franchise is taking? Do you think that this will impact any negotiations with suitors?
JS: Most fans are angry and accusing the Twins of failing to live up to their promises to use the advent of the new stadium to fund the payroll. I disagree. I've probably been harder on the Pohlads than anyone else here in the media, but I think they had to let Torii Hunter go -- he's not a $90 million player for a team with a $70 million payroll. (Or a $100-million payroll, which is what it should be by 2010). They should have traded him at the deadline, but they were still within six games, and felt they couldn't clean house. In retrospect, that would have been wise.
Santana wants $25 million. He also wants to pitch in New York. That's too much money for a pitcher who, without run support, might win 15-17 games a year. The Twins simply have too many needs to think that signing Santana long-term will solve enough of their problems.
The Yankees can afford to buy out their mistakes. The Twins would be hamstrung for a decade if they signed Santana to a $150 million deal and he hurt his arm.
The
Twins have to rebuild, and hope they're contending again by the time the
new stadium opens.
Jim
Souhan began writing for the Star Tribune in 1990. He has primarily covered
the Vikings and Twins and written features, and in 2004, he became a columnist.
His columns typically appear on Sunday, Monday, Wednesday and Friday. He
can be heard on KSTP AM 1500 on Sundays from 10-noon. You can send him
e-mail at Jsouhan@startribune.com